Quantitative foresight · Est. 2002
For twenty years we built structural economic models for ministries, boards and central banks in more than forty countries, one engagement at a time. The Phylleos Platform gives clients direct access to the current generation of those models, rebuilt on 2024 data.
Who this is for
Pressure-test tariff, supply-chain, and market exposure before it reaches the balance sheet.
Every sector carries a balance sheet and the central bank follows a policy rule, so rate scenarios reach asset prices, funding costs and wealth through the same channels they use in practice.
Baselines built on the CBO, Treasury and OECD outlooks, so every result is a measured difference from the forecast your institution already uses.
Structural detail across industries and regions, without commissioning a bespoke build for every question.
How it works
The structural model produces every number. These three make it current, fast and readable.
Estimates the present state of the economy between official data releases, so the baseline reflects this quarter rather than the last one published.
A trained approximation of the full model that returns a scenario in seconds. The full model is re-run to confirm any result that matters.
Read documents in and write the brief out. A solved run becomes a document a committee can read, with each figure traceable to the run.
Methodology
The predicted behaviour of each mechanism is written down first, as signs, magnitudes and tolerance bands. It is accepted only when a controlled experiment reproduces the prediction. Every solved year passes accounting checks that hold stored positions to within one part in a million.
Forecast paths for output, employment, inflation and the policy rate enter from the CBO and official demographic projections. When our China model's current account surplus overshot the World Bank's projection, we rebuilt the baseline until it matched. Results are reported as differences from the outlook your institution already works with.
Households, firms, government, banks and the rest of the world each hold deposits, bonds, credit and equity, and the accounts reconcile every year. The cost of capital that prices investment is the financing cost this system produces.
Insights
Analysis will be published here as it is ready. Until then, ask us directly.
Client Portal
Clients access their models directly. They run scenarios, generate charts and produce written and visual narratives without waiting on a consulting engagement to get an answer.
See how portal access works →Early access begins with a guided set of comparative scenarios. Open-ended simulation follows once that is working well for the first clients.
Phylleos